CFBTalkDaily

            As the season begins to unwind and bowl season begins, we enter what I consider the most fun period as a fan, the coaching carousel. Coaching being fired, retiring, coordinators leaving for their first HC job, coordinators leaving to redeem themselves as head coaches. But maybe some schools get onto the carousel leaving behind something good with the vision of improving. Are some schools’ expectations far too high?  Absolutely. (take a breath Texas fans, I’m not going to come after you-just yet at least)

            With some already shocking jobs appearing on the horizon, two that stood out to me just so happened to take place in the same conference, the good ol’ SEC. Ed Orgeron and LSU are parting ways 2 years out from a National Championship and Dan Mullen being relieved from Florida. It appeared that in the past few weeks Mullen’s days were numbered at Florida. 6-6 at Florida, a team that has a boatload of talent, is not good. I’ll agree with that assessment. But I am starting to think the SEC is turning into “what you have done for me lately” regarding its coaches.

            The more I look into this, this is not a recent development. Jim McElwain put up a 22-12 record at UF before being fired 7 games into year 3. You would think that those first two years must have been terrible, 6-6 or even 5-7. Wrong. Instead, he took them to back-to-back SEC Championship games in 2015&2016 losing twice to Alabama, who both times go on to play in the College Football Championship, winning it once.

            This one is swept under the rug because Georgia has had success even after the change. Kirby Smart has probably the second most job security in the conference, only behind Nick Saban, so this is not to say Georgia made a bad move. But, let’s say that things had not worked out in the Bulldog’s favor, I would be saying how they moved on from a coach who was 171-64. Hindsight being 20/20, maybe this is a time where a university felt that their program had gone stale and a new face freshened it up.

            Kevin Sumlin (don’t execute me for this, this take is based on pre-Arizona Kevin Sumlin) takes over Texas A&M as they make the jump into the SEC from the Big 12(keep this in the back of your head.) Year one, 11-2 with a Cotton Bowl victory and a win over Alabama. The transition was certainly helped by Johnny Football showing up in College Station. What did he follow up with? The following 4 years he posted one 9-win season and three 8 win seasons, which sounds a lot like Jimbo Fisher’s tenure so far. Mind you, TAMU was not a national powerhouse in the Big 12 jumping into the SEC, posting a 64-60 (51.6 WPCT) with only 1 bowl win coming in that same span. During Sumlin’s 5 ½ years, 51-27 (65.3 WPCT) with 3 bowl victories.

            More recently, another firing that puzzles my head is Gus Malzahn.  8 years at Auburn, a 63-35 record (66 WPCT), and 8 appearances in the AP top 10. For those of you keeping track at home, that Is every single season he was there. SEC champions in his first season and a 3-point loss to FSU in the last BCS Championship game. Following a 12-2 opening act, Gus produced 8 win season after 8 win season and even threw a 10 win season in there in 2017. 6 wins in 2020, his last season, and fans and boosters wanted him thrown to the side of the road. With a bowl game left to play, Auburn is staring 6 wins in the face again.

            Ed Orgeron is the last of these cases. Wins a National Championship with probably the most dominant offenses of all time, is beloved by fans and the media, and yet gets the can. His time at LSU differs from everyone else on this list. The year before winning it all, 10 wins and a Fiesta Bowl victory. 2019 he wins it all with Joe Burrow, and then in Covid-19 shortened 2020 they go 5-5, followed by 6-6 this year. Was this a case of Ed Orgeron piggybacking off of Joe Burrow and their success, or was Coach O cut loose a year too early before he could get another shot at the 2019 success? Going from Heisman winner to freshman QB should warrant a drop-off of no surprise. Who knows what happens if Coach O gets another year with Max Johnson, whose TD shot up from 8 in 2020 to 27 in 2021. (Yes, I know 2020 he played in half the games he did in 2021, but almost 3.5x TD output is something to think about.)

            So maybe SEC schools aren’t quite sure when to move on and when to keep faith in a coach. Dan Mullen puts up two 10+ win seasons at Florida, and at the first sign of displeasure, he’s unemployed. They do the same thing to Jim McElwain and forget about the SEC title games. Kevin Sumlin takes A&M and makes them a relevant SEC team, and Gus makes Auburn a legitimate playoff/BCS team for 8 years. So how does this look from the outside looking in? It looks like if you have a great year, that is now your expected outcome. All the coaches I mentioned put up 10 win seasons and were crucified when they won 9 or 8 games.

            Remember when I told Texas fans to wait, well now you’re up. Texas alone has probably the highest expectations for its football program. Well add that into the equation of unrealistic expectations put up by SEC schools, what do we have? A very quick hot seat for Steve Sarkisian. Imagine if any of those coaches listed above had lost to Vanderbilt at home, the closest the SEC has to Kansas. The locks to the facility would be changed and they would be thrown off-campus. How much time does Sark have at Texas before they start to look to replace him? Does the SEC speed that process up? Did Lincoln Riley, who was against the move to the SEC, flee Oklahoma to avoid this all? Those are questions we will never really know the answer to.

            The SEC has a problem. Maybe they don’t give coaches enough time to make that next step? They see the one really good year and think that is their floor and not their ceiling. As much as I love the coaching carousel, maybe some schools need to show some faith in a coach and not look for a new one at the first sight of trouble.